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Jae Onasi
03-09-2007, 02:10 PM
NateDogg started a thread on Clinton and Obama, so I thought I'd start a discussion on the Republican candidates.

The two early front-runners seems to be Sen. McCain (AZ) and former NYC Mayor Giuliani.

While it seems to me that Clinton is likely to sew things up for the Dem nomination, things are not quite so clear for the Republicans, and I think they're actually going to come into the next election as the underdogs, even if they had a perfect candidate.

I can't make any kind of prediction on who'll come out on top for the Republicans. Both have the ability to raise the money for a solid run. McCain has a lot of Senate experience and connections, and he has the military experience in his favor, but he's hawkish and that may hurt him. Giuliani has the disadvantages of multiple marriages and an affair in his background, and some of his programs in NYC were not popular, but he certainly rose to the occasion after 9/11, and no one is going to forget what he did and how he acted through all that.
There are other candidates in the mix, but I honestly don't think they'll have a chance against these two.

SilentScope001
03-09-2007, 05:28 PM
Iraq isn't a make-or-break issue for me. I dislike McCain's policy of "stay the course", but McCain is an intelligent person, a fiscally conserative moderate, and because of that, I will vote for him.

Of course, the American people will just say: "See ya!", thanks to the Iraq War and McCain cozying up to the Right Wing, but it's a democracy and people have the right to do that.

Achilles
03-09-2007, 08:00 PM
There are other candidates in the mix, but I honestly don't think they'll have a chance against these two. Don't forget Newt Gingrich. Some polls have him ahead of McCain even though he hasn't indicated that he intends to run.

Not to worry, though. He has all the integrity (http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/290075,CST-NWS-newt09.article) he'll need to compete against Guliani.

Emperor Devon
03-09-2007, 08:28 PM
Normally I prefer the Democrats, but I have to say I really like both of these candidates.

I like a lot of McCain's views - he's probably one of the most reasonable Republicans out there, supporting stem cell research and criticizing the war in Iraq. Other than how he's against abortion and voted for invading Iraq, I agree with quite a few of his views.

As far as politicians go, he seems honorable enough. Not many people would criticize a smear campaign against their opponents.

Guliani's got fairly similar political views, but with the added bonus of having cleaned up New York. Both of them look to be very good nominations. (Certainly better than the Democrats, at any rate...)

Jae Onasi
03-09-2007, 09:59 PM
Don't forget Newt Gingrich. Some polls have him ahead of McCain even though he hasn't indicated that he intends to run.

Not to worry, though. He has all the integrity (http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/290075,CST-NWS-newt09.article) he'll need to compete against Guliani.

:)
I had forgotten about Gingrich. I don't know if he'd be as palatable politically to moderates as the other two, however, because he's such a political lightning rod.
Yeah, the hypocrisy bugged me. His choice of Focus on the Family as the vehicle for revealing that was interesting.

Affairs are going to hurt any candidate's chances with conservatives, but I don't know if it's going to have the same effect it might have, say, 15 or 20 years ago.

I think Giuliani has a better chance of convincing people to look past that aspect of his life.

Achilles
03-09-2007, 11:56 PM
It's not the moderates that he has to convince. Really, it going to be between him and Giuliani if he decides to run.

McCain is on the ropes for two reasons:
First, he's too old. Polls show that voters are more likely to vote for a black person or a female before they'll vote for an old guy. Source (http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/feb/20/poll_americans_reluctant_to_vote_for_mormon_multip le_divorcee_or_old_candidate)
Second, he's taking a beating for not being conservative enough. Source (http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070305/blumenthal)

You seem to forget that in order to carry the primary, the Republican candidate has to be an ultra-conservative whack-job if he or she wants to mobilize the voters that will win him/her the election. If Giuliani can convince the Evangelicals that he's their man, then he's in. Newt is a player in the Rapture Republican circles, so all he has to do is show up.

Ambrose
03-10-2007, 10:54 PM
I'd like to see Ron Paul pull a win, but there's no way he'll get the nomination. Being anti-Iraq war and all that.

mimartin
03-11-2007, 06:45 PM
I'd like to see Ron Paul pull a win, but there's no way he'll get the nomination. Being anti-Iraq war and all that.

Ron Paul is my congressman and I don't even want him for that. He votes against everything and anything. My real problem is he wants the U.S. to go back to the gold standard. That sounds good. The government has to be more financially prudent and canít just print money. The problem is other countries could flood the world with gold driving down the price thus bankrupting our already bankrupted society.

Of the two front runners Iíll go with McCain, but he wouldnít get my vote when it counts. Iím voting for the other side even if the Democrats put Britney Spears on the their ticket.

Jae Onasi
03-11-2007, 10:47 PM
Newt hasn't declared he's running at this point, though I wouldn't be surprised if he does announce at some point. I think his revelation of the affair on Focus on the Family was rather an odd choice, but it looks to me like that was a 'testing the waters' kind of move. And yes, I thought it was incredibly hypocritical of Newt to try to impeach Clinton for lying about an affair when he's in the middle of one himself. I was hardly surprised by that revelation, but I never liked the man--way too conservative for my taste and he's just kind of smarmy.

SilentScope001
03-11-2007, 11:17 PM
[quote]And yes, I thought it was incredibly hypocritical of Newt to try to impeach Clinton for lying about an affair when he's in the middle of one himself.[/qiuote]

Well, I'm suprised that Newt said that the reason he impeached Clinton was because he lied when taking an oath. Nothing to do about the affair, just about lying when he takes an oath. Perjury. Except, well, he techincally didn't lie...he didn't have "[CENSORED]", he had "[CENSORED]". :) {If you want to know what I meant by that, just PM me and I'll tell you. Note the censor bars indicate it's something that is censory-worthy. I'd assume it is somewhat self-evident for those who studied the trial.}

Even so, can't Newt just have the Courts arrest the President and have him rule the country through a prison cell? Not an impeachment-worthy offense, but if he lied, he probraly does deserve some jail time.

tk102
03-12-2007, 12:16 AM
Disclosure: I'm a registered http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v170/tk102/6c5a2f3d.gif
:)

Chuck Hagel might throw his hat into the ring tomorrow. (link) (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/03/08/politics/main2547579.shtml) Some pundits this weekend proposed that his candidacy might be the formula the GOP is looking for since he was one of the first Republicans to openly criticize the war in Iraq. Like McCain, he served in Vietnam and got Purple Heart and like McCain he seems pretty straight with his viewpoints. It would be interesting to see how he mixes up the polls if he decides to run. I've liked McCain up until recently with his strong support for the Iraq build-up.

Achilles
03-12-2007, 04:03 PM
Update on Giuliani's campaign (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070312/pl_nm/usa_politics_giuliani_dc)

SilentScope001
03-12-2007, 04:23 PM
Chuck Hagel seesm interesting, and might fit my views. I would not be shocked if he pulls a "John Kerry" victory in Iowa, and then, because of that victory, seizes contorl over the primaries. Two anti-war candinates...that wouldn't help the Democrats. :)