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jonathan7
08-08-2008, 08:51 AM
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4485527.ece

Escalation is unfortunately looking inevitable.

mur'phon
08-08-2008, 09:16 AM
Damn you for beating me to it:xp:
Some more info (http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11909324&source=features_box1)

Anyway, this will prove quite the test for the wests claim that they are helping/protecting former eastern block countries. Let's hope they pass it, and that Dima grows a spine large enough to make a diplomatic solution possible.

jonathan7
08-08-2008, 09:20 AM
Damn you for beating me to it:xp:
Some more info (http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11909324&source=features_box1)

Anyway, this will prove quite the test for the wests claim that they are helping/protecting former eastern block countries. Let's hope they pass it, and that Dima grows a spine large enough to make a diplomatic solution possible.

I hope we move into Protect Georgia, but if we do or not is another matter; If I was Brown, I would already have Euro fighters securing Georgian Airspace.

Arátoeldar
08-08-2008, 09:55 AM
Better Send in the Ghost Recon Team. :xp::lol:

Ghost Recon begins in 2008, with civil unrest in Russia. Ultra-nationalists have seized power in Moscow, with plans to rebuild the Iron Curtain. Their first step is clandestine support of rebel factions in Georgia and the Baltic States. This is where the Ghosts come in: to silence the rebellion. Armed with some of the most advanced weaponry in the world, the soldiers of the Ghost Recon force are covertly inserted into Eastern Europe and given specific missions to curtail the rebel actions and overthrow their benefactors.

The game's storyline stems from political turmoil that came to light a few years earlier, in which the Ultra-nationalist regime came to power and placed its leader, Dmitri Arbatov, as Russia's president. By 2007, the threat posed by the Arbatov Administration became clear. Russia forms an alliance called the Russian Democratic Union (RDU), which is made up of the previously conquered countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Together, they launch a campaign to revive the long-dissolved Soviet Union by taking back all of the former Soviet republics.

:eek: It's eerie at how close Tom Clancy at being right.

SW01
08-08-2008, 10:20 AM
I hope we move into Protect Georgia, but if we do or not is another matter; If I was Brown, I would already have Euro fighters securing Georgian Airspace.

That would only make things worse, and draw us into the conflict as well. Relations between Russia and ourselves haven't been great since the Pollonium 210 incident - we would be asking to be hit.

From the article above, I must say that I believe the Russian Federation to be the injured party. Georgian troops attacked S. Ossetia, Russian citizens were killed. Not to mention the fact that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian comrades in the same unit, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Read this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

South Ossetia has been semi-independent for over a decade, and the peoplewant to break away from Georgia. It is interesting that some of us in the West support Georgia in crushing seperatism, but condemn others that have done the same.

jonathan7
08-08-2008, 10:24 AM
That would only make things worse, and draw us into the conflict as well. Relations between Russia and ourselves haven't been great since the Pollonium 210 incident - we would be asking to be hit.

And who's fault is it that relations haven't been good? Don't see us assassinating anyone in Russia do you? :xp:

From the article above, I must say that I believe the Russian Federation to be the injured party. Georgian troops attacked S. Ossetia, Russian citizens were killed. Not to mention the fact that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian comrades in the same unit, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Read this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

South Ossetia has been semi-independent for over a decade, and the peoplewant to break away from Georgia. It is interesting that some of us in the West support Georgia in crushing seperatism, but condemn others that have done the same.

May I suggest a great bit more reading from you into this situation... Why are Russian Peacekeepers in Georgia? If Georgia needs peacekeepers, do you think they would really go to the Russians? :dozey:

Murph - given you probably have the best and most widely read background, you fancy cutting in?

jawathehutt
08-08-2008, 10:30 AM
Better Send in the Ghost Recon Team. :xp::lol:



:eek: It's eerie at how close Tom Clancy at being right.

Ha thats exactly what I thought when I saw it

SW01
08-08-2008, 10:35 AM
And who's fault is it that relations haven't been good? Don't see us assassinating anyone in Russia do you? :xp:

That is very true, and I do not support what Russia did, nor do I condemn our reaction, but all the same I do not fancy the idea of being drawn into a war with one of the most powerful military forces in the world! Our forces are already engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Iran soon enough if Georgie has his way).

The 'unofficial' referendum is a complicating factor here. That BBC News article shows that South Ossetia has been verging on independence since the Soviet Union fell, and that the majority of people in South Ossetia support seperatism. Had it been a minority trying to force independence with no real basis, I would be supporting Georgia. In this case, I cannot see how I can.

Also: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm
An overview of South Ossetia's past and present allegiance to Russia and opposition to Georgia, along with mention of a war to break away 16 years ago.

jonathan7
08-08-2008, 10:59 AM
That is very true, and I do not support what Russia did, nor do I condemn our reaction, but all the same I do not fancy the idea of being drawn into a war with one of the most powerful military forces in the world! Our forces are already engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Iran soon enough if Georgie has his way).

Moral positions aside, Russia one of the most powerful military forces in the world? No! Not any more besides, what risk do you think they pose to the UK - Britain has a more advanced air force; there is a large ammount of land and sea between us; and our Navy is more advanced - Russia hold numerical advantage - but that means nothing if you control the air, finally neither side would use Nukes, and I wasn't proposing Britain went to war; just make sure the Russians knew they couldn't bomb Tibillisi. There is a difference between establishing a boundary and defending, and attacking.

The 'unofficial' referendum is a complicating factor here. That BBC News article shows that South Ossetia has been verging on independence since the Soviet Union fell, and that the majority of people in South Ossetia support seperatism. Had it been a minority trying to force independence with no real basis, I would be supporting Georgia. In this case, I cannot see how I can.

Also: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm
An overview of South Ossetia's past and present allegiance to Russia and opposition to Georgia, along with mention of a war to break away 16 years ago.

It still remains something Russian troops shouldn't be involved in - I will let murph post, before commenting further :)

mur'phon
08-08-2008, 11:43 AM
From the article above, I must say that I believe the Russian Federation to be the injured party. Georgian troops attacked S. Ossetia, Russian citizens were killed. Not to mention the fact that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian comrades in the same unit, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

First, never ever trust what government oficals on both sides of this conflict say. I do not doubt the fact that S. Ossetia was attacked, only the casualties.

South Ossetia has been semi-independent for over a decade, and the peoplewant to break away from Georgia.

Too bad that the a third of the population is Georgian, and that the "country" is a patchwork of Georgian villages run by Tiblisi and Ossetian villages run by Tskhinvali. And if you refer to the "referendum" they had in 2006, then you might want to ask yourself how 99% could be in favor of independence.

Now, a little info about South Ossetia seem to be in order. SO is one of the poorest places in Europe, most people are subsistence farming in order to survive. Now how can such a place have the cash needed for a functioning state? Simple, they get almost two thirds from it directly from Russia. Another third is gained from taxing goods passing through from Russia. As for who runs the place, it's a mix betwen Russian oficals, and local smuglig lords (not only legal goods pass through from Russia).
As for the Russian peace keepers, they are there as much to scare other former satelites as they are there to defend their puppets. Georgia is on track to join NATO, and have been one of the most pro-western countries in the eastern bloc. Russia sees this as a nice opportunity to show the rest of the former satelites just how little protection the west provides.

It is interesting that some of us in the West support Georgia in crushing seperatism, but condemn others that have done the same.

I do not have a problem with seperatism, I do however, have a problem when it's used as a guise by one country to grab parts of another.

J7: I'm afraid you're wrong concerning the strenght of Russias military power, their tech have always been based on the "max bang for your buck" philosophy, and tech wise parts of it matches Brittains, together with a lot more troops, Brittain wouln't really stand a chance. Russia vs the EU is a different story however.

jonathan7
08-08-2008, 11:49 AM
<snip>

Thanks for your summation and clarification of the problem; I knew you would be better able to do it than me :)

J7: I'm afraid you're wrong concerning the strenght of Russias military power, their tech have always been based on the "max bang for your buck" philosophy, and tech wise parts of it matches Brittains, together with a lot more troops, Brittain wouln't really stand a chance. Russia vs the EU is a different story however.

Hmmm, Perhaps, I'm behind, but I was still under the impression the Russian military hardware was in a state of decay and that the Euro-Fighter is the most advanced warp plane anywhere outside of America.

I would however still argue that Britain has air superiority; I was also under the impression the UK's subs were better than Russia's - its academic, as I don't think in the current climate a war would ever occur between the UK and Russia, regardless of how frosty the diplomacy became.

SW01
08-08-2008, 12:09 PM
Both sides in this conflict are guilty of one thing or another - it seems easy to see both sides:

Georgia is entitled to protect its borders, but probaly shouldn't have launched an assault.

Russia has the right to protect its citizens, but the accusations that it is trying to undermine Georgia, and that it armed the rebels, are very concerning.

I agree with the UN and EU positions on negotiating peace, but in this situation the UN cannot possibly act - Russia will use its veto.

If it came to war between Russia and Georgia, Russia would run over Georgia easily. There was an interesting point (I forget where) that the Georgian President chose now to attack while Bush is still in office.

Mur'phon:
Didn't know the referendum result was that high - it IS absurd.

To All:
Do you think that Obama would give military support to Georgia? For that matter, would Bush be prepared to?

Finally, China's position - call off all conflicts for the Olympics! :dozey:

mur'phon
08-08-2008, 12:29 PM
Georgia is entitled to protect its borders, but probaly shouldn't have launched an assault.

It's not just about the borders, it's also the 1/3 of SOs population that is Georgian, and that a part of what it considers it's territory is in effect a dictatorship controlled by a different country. Add a number of russian "manouvers" across the border (once dropping "something").

Russia has the right to protect its citizens, but the accusations that it is trying to undermine Georgia, and that it armed the rebels, are very concerning.

It's citizens? I thought you said they wanted independence.

There was an interesting point (I forget where) that the Georgian President chose now to attack while Bush is still in office.

That was no doubt a contributing factor.

Finally, China's position - call off all conflicts for the Olympics


If the fighting drags on, that will probably also be Russias position too, Sochi is not far from the border.

MdKnightR
08-08-2008, 12:34 PM
I say we stay out of it. So much of the world's ills have been caused by our meddling in affairs that are none of our business.

Web Rider
08-08-2008, 01:45 PM
I would however still argue that Britain has air superiority; I was also under the impression the UK's subs were better than Russia's - its academic, as I don't think in the current climate a war would ever occur between the UK and Russia, regardless of how frosty the diplomacy became.

Russia retains the record, and continues to construct some of the largest and power powerful subs in the world. In terms of length, NOBODY has built a bigger sub.

I for one am for not getting involved. The US does not need a new proxy war with Russia, particularly with current Russian government attitudes towards the US.

SW01
08-08-2008, 01:48 PM
It's citizens? I thought you said they wanted independence.

They do, but a majority of SO citizens are Russian citizens, apparently, and it is one of the reasons the Russian Government gave for sending in armour.

MdKnightR: It is a very tempting option, but apparently there are many reasons the West should be concerned:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4486297.ece

Nedak
08-08-2008, 02:04 PM
We should stay out. We're already in Iraq for christ sakes.
The last thing we need is to mess with an extremely powerful army.

Also might I add that Georgia is ****ed

SW01
08-08-2008, 02:13 PM
We should stay out. We're already in Iraq for christ sakes.

And Afghanistan.

Also might I add that Georgia is ****ed

Without a LOT of help - yes, it is.

mur'phon
08-08-2008, 02:20 PM
They do, but a majority of SO citizens are Russian citizens, apparently, and it is one of the reasons the Russian Government gave for sending in armour.

My point was, they don't tend to see themsleves as part of Russia either, that is sorta why they want autonomy. And I would like you to define Russian citizen, SO became part of Russia at the same time as the rest of Georgia.

SilentScope001
08-08-2008, 03:10 PM
(Alright, I know, I know, I said I would leave, but, um...

I have been worried over a Russia-Georgia war for quite some time. To see it actually happen just begs me to come over here to say, "Told ya so."

That's it. Now back to exile...)

And I would like you to define Russian citizen ...

Ask the Russian government themselves. The Russians has granted citizenship to anyone living in South Oesstia, as well as the right to use Russian passports. This was the main reason the Russians used for why they sent troops to SO, because they were protecting their own 'citizens'. And overwhealmingly, the majority in SO are Oesstians.

The Georgian governments were the ones who started the attack. And I have no sympathy for their leader. However, the current US Strategy (call for a return to the status quo, an ending to the fighting) seems to be the only good one at the moment.

This is going to be an important war: If Georgia wins, Russia's power will diminsh heavily. If Russia wins, America's power will diminish heavily. Georgia's military looks very weak on paper, but it did get arms and training from NATO, and it is betting on NATO intervention, so who knows? My money's on Russia though.

ForeverNight
08-08-2008, 03:30 PM
Wow SS, weird Double-post... Internet issues? <-- fixed :) - Cz

I remember a remark I made in my English/History class about half a year ago, before my attention was drawn to this area.

"Soviet Union Reduex within forty years?"

With the way Russia is lately, it looks like that's going to be happening. I guess that my major concern is going to be who's going to blink?

We're involved in a giant game of Chicken there, with nations pledging to defend Georgia... well, we all know how well that turned out last time we did something like that.

I guess the part of this that worries me the most is how close we (The US) are to Russia... The Bering strait isn't that large, and if we declare war... Well, Anchorage might be in for some trouble.

Well... I guess that the Middle East would have to wait if we went to war... I just pray that it remains totally conventional... After all MAD only works if the other side doesn't think they have a chance of defending themselves...

((Next time, don't declare your exile so publicly...))

Ctrl Alt Del
08-08-2008, 08:04 PM
Too bad that the a third of the population is Georgian, and that the "country" is a patchwork of Georgian villages run by Tiblisi and Ossetian villages run by Tskhinvali.

That's not how things work over there. Nationality is not defined at where you were born but where your parents were.

On a crude comparison it would be as the immigrations on the US. People that are born on America would live on ghettos divided according to their ascendance, such as the Irish, the welsh ad so on.

Web Rider
08-08-2008, 08:26 PM
That's not how things work over there. Nationality is not defined at where you were born but where your parents were.

On a crude comparison it would be as the immigrations on the US. People that are born on America would live on ghettos divided according to their ascendance, such as the Irish, the welsh ad so on.


indeed, and one of the most famous Russians was Georgian, aka: Stalin. It's not like being Georgian implies allegiance to the country of Georgia.

Da_Man_2423
08-09-2008, 05:12 AM
This is going to be an important war: If Georgia wins, Russia's power will diminsh heavily. If Russia wins, America's power will diminish heavily.

Can you please elaborate for both sides how/why their power will diminish if they lose?

Georgia's military looks very weak on paper, but it did get arms and training from NATO, and it is betting on NATO intervention, so who knows?

Georgia's military IS weak compared to Russia's. When did Georgia get training and equipment from NATO, and how much did they get? Russia has a huge advantage militarily in all aspects. Also, NATO intervening would violate their "rules" as it is a collective defense military alliance, and Georgia is not in NATO.

Edit: I read in a newly published article today that Georgia did indeed get military hardware from Western countries, although I'm still interested into how much.


My money's on Russia though.

Good choice.

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 07:17 AM
Ask the Russian government themselves. The Russians has granted citizenship to anyone living in South Oesstia, as well as the right to use Russian passports. This was the main reason the Russians used for why they sent troops to SO, because they were protecting their own 'citizens'. And overwhealmingly, the majority in SO are Oesstians.

When did I say the majority wheren't Ossetians? As for them being Russian citizens, I'll consider them Russians once they actually vote to become that, not when Moscow say they are.

I guess the part of this that worries me the most is how close we (The US) are to Russia... The Bering strait isn't that large, and if we declare war... Well, Anchorage might be in for some trouble.


You Sir, are massively underestimating Russian military might:D

Well... I guess that the Middle East would have to wait if we went to war... I just pray that it remains totally conventional... After all MAD only works if the other side doesn't think they have a chance of defending themselves...


Agreed, I'm not moving to Russia just to get nuked:xp:

That's not how things work over there. Nationality is not defined at where you were born but where your parents were.

Well, in that case they are all Georgians since not many countries recognize SO:P
The trouble with SO is that when a village is run by Tiblisi, it's in practise a part of Georgia propper.

Just to make my position clear, I have nothing against SO becoming independent in an election. However, I think SOs chance of becoming autonomous is far greater if it is still part of Georgia (who'll get pressured by its western allies), than if it becomes a part of Russia. At best, it might turn out like Chechenya, autonomous, but ruled by a warlord (though in this case, it'll probably be a crimelord).

Can you please elaborate for both sides how/why their power will diminish if they lose?

Because eastern bloc countries tend to side with either Russia, or the west/US. If Georgia loose, expect to see a lot of countries becoming Russian satelites.

Also, NATO intervening would violate their "rules" as it is a collective defense military alliance, and Georgia is not in NATO.

True, but I wouldn't be surprised if they intervene to prevent Russia from grabing a lot of it's former satelites. Heck, they might even say that result would threaten member states, and do some preemptive striking.

Da_Man_2423
08-09-2008, 07:29 AM
Because eastern bloc countries tend to side with either Russia, or the west/US. If Georgia loose, expect to see a lot of countries becoming Russian satelites.

But why would they do that? Because Russia flexes its military muscle? Or is it because Georgia is backed by NATO, and if Georgia loses, NATO somehow isn't capable of defending other nations, so they go to Russia?



True, but I wouldn't be surprised if they intervene to prevent Russia from grabing a lot of it's former satelites. Heck, they might even say that result would threaten member states, and do some preemptive striking.

Intervene as in...FULL military intervention? That would be very problematic for the world. I hope you mean diplomatic talks instead for a preemptive strike.

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 08:25 AM
But why would they do that? Because Russia flexes its military muscle? Or is it because Georgia is backed by NATO, and if Georgia loses, NATO somehow isn't capable of defending other nations, so they go to Russia?

Mainly the later.

Intervene as in...FULL military intervention? That would be very problematic for the world. I hope you mean diplomatic talks instead for a preemptive strike.

Hopefully it'll be resolved diplomatically, but Dima is sounding more more and more like Putin, so I don't have very high hopes. And by preemtive strike, I mean strike before Russia strikes a NATO country (not likely to happen, but it could work as an excuse) by defending Georgia, not striking Russia itself.

SW01
08-09-2008, 11:28 AM
Remeber that Putin showed fond reminiscence for the Soviet era on more than one occasion. While Medvedev is now President, many (here, anyway) still believe that Vlad is pulling the strings. If he is the puppet master, Russia moving to retake old Soviet territory doesn't seem too far-fetched...
...and we will all regret it.

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 11:51 AM
You're right about Vlads power, at least for now. However the longer Dima remains president, the more power he'll gain, and if Vlad dosen't decide to take another term as president, he'll get to run Russia one day. As for Vlads aims, it all depends on wether or not he'll seek a second term as president. If yes, then he'll at least try to make the neighbours satelites, if not, he'll probably soon be busy protecting his supporters wealth and let Dima set foreign policy. As for Vlads fondness for the Soviet era, unfourtantely a lot russians share that fondness (a very popular TV show is asking russians to vote for their gratest leader, so far, Stalin is winning:()

As for what Dima wants, he apears to not want a war, his guys where trying to reasure the outside world of Russias peacefull intentions untill all hell broke loose, then he startet sounding like Vlad. However, don't think that Dima is going to be much easier to deal with than Vlad, there is a reason why Vlad gave him the throne.

SW01
08-09-2008, 12:07 PM
if Vlad dosen't decide to take another term as president

I didn't know he could take another term as President - how many are permitted?

As for Vlads fondness for the Soviet era, unfourtantely a lot russians share that fondness (a very popular TV show is asking russians to vote for their gratest leader, so far, Stalin is winning)

That is very surprising. I thought the Russian people were pleased to see him go as much as the rest of us. I would have thought Lenin or Khruschev before Stalin!

jonathan7
08-09-2008, 12:15 PM
That is very surprising. I thought the Russian people were pleased to see him go as much as the rest of us. I would have thought Lenin or Khruschev before Stalin!

What on earth made you think that?

To understand a culture, you must first understand what your culture teaches your mode of thinking. Then you can begin to understand other cultures.

Enculturation is insidious, it influences every human being on the planet, whether they know it or not.

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 12:17 PM
I didn't know he could take another term as President - how many are permitted?

IIRC as many as he want, though only two at a time.

J7: Agreed

ChAiNz.2da
08-09-2008, 12:19 PM
Things seem to be taking a turn for the worse:

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia's parliament Saturday approved a request by President Mikhail Saakashvili's to impose a "state of war," as the conflict between Georgia and Russia escalated, Georgian officials said.

source (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html)

ForeverNight
08-09-2008, 12:45 PM
You Sir, are massively underestimating Russian military might

How so? I was just using Anchorage as an example, not trying to say that only if you live there you're screwed.

Things seem to be taking a turn for the worse

Yeah... now I'm going to have to find a list of all who're involved in the "Protect Georgia" thing...

EDIT:
“I want to make very clear that the U.S. commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity is strong.”

Source (http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/news/2008/space-080708-rferl01.htm) It's in the lower section of the article on something entirely different.

Hmmm.... Looks like something might be brewing for the US sometime soon...

SW01
08-09-2008, 01:40 PM
What on earth made you think that?

Gulags.

jonathan7
08-09-2008, 02:28 PM
Gulags.

And how many people knew/know about the Gulags, how many people care about the Gulags?

If you are brought up in such at atmosphere what does it do to an individual?

What do you know of the average Russians psyche?

Web Rider
08-09-2008, 02:36 PM
That is very surprising. I thought the Russian people were pleased to see him go as much as the rest of us. I would have thought Lenin or Khruschev before Stalin!

They were, at first, but as time when on and the Soviet Bloc nations fell apart and Russia fell into recession, people began to long for the old days. A lot of Russians and ex-Soviet bloc nations will tell you they'd gladly trade the current situation of their own country to be part of something big and grand like the Soviet Union.

People liked feeling like they were important in the world, not impotent.

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 02:42 PM
^^An economic colapse is not a pretty sight, my grandfather by a river with a Russian city on the opposite bank, they where instructed how to react if the towns population fled across the ice. However that longing for the old days is fading as Russias wealth increase.

SW01
08-09-2008, 03:29 PM
A lot of Russians and ex-Soviet bloc nations will tell you they'd gladly trade the current situation of their own country to be part of something big and grand like the Soviet Union.

I suppose that is one of the reasons that many of those states are angling to join the EU and NATO.

I can see the positive points of Stalin's reign/presidency (depends how you look at it.) The five-year plans brought economic growth, not to mention his defence of the Soviet Union in the Second World War.

Out of interest, who are the other runners in that TV poll?

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 03:46 PM
I can see the positive points of Stalin's reign/presidency (depends how you look at it.) The five-year plans brought economic growth, not to mention his defence of the Soviet Union in the Second World War.


The defence worked, but I wouldn't give him much credit for it (look up Soviet warcrimes during WW2). As for the economy, an old Russian joke goes like this: "How do you get rid of the mice in the Kremlin? You put up a sign saying 'collective farm'. Then half the mice will starve, and the others flee".

Out of interest, who are the other runners in that TV poll?

Lenin, the last tsar (he's in second place), and anyone else that can be decribed as great.

Talak Sana
08-09-2008, 04:09 PM
People liked feeling like they were important in the world, not impotent.

I don't think so. I live in a country that was occupied by the sovs in 1940 and we hated the SU, still do.

SW01
08-09-2008, 04:54 PM
Lenin, the last tsar (he's in second place), and anyone else that can be decribed as great.

Hmmm...Josef Stalin is 1st, Tsar Nicholas II is 2nd - the Russians don't seem enamoured with democracy, do they? I suppose they look back and see a world power that inspired fear and respect throughout the world, with enough of a rose-tint to ignore the poverty and brutality.

Actually...not so much different from the rest of us!

EDIT: I just read this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7551595.stm
Seems both sides are digging their heels in. Russia has said negotiation is impossible until Georgian forces return to positions outside S. Ossetia, and PM (Prime Minister, or Puppet Master) Vlad has moved down to N. Ossetia. Casualty reports are very confusing - Russia says 1400, mostly civilians (as does SO), Georgia says 82-130, the minority being civilians.

Talak Sana
08-09-2008, 06:32 PM
Lenin, the last tsar (he's in second place), and anyone else that can be decribed as great.

Wasn't Nicholas II the last tsar?

Web Rider
08-09-2008, 06:40 PM
Lenin, the last tsar (he's in second place), and anyone else that can be decribed as great.

Lenin was not a Tsar.

I don't think so. I live in a country that was occupied by the sovs in 1940 and we hated the SU, still do.

Which one is that?

Wasn't Nicholas II the last tsar?
that is correct.

mur'phon
08-09-2008, 07:00 PM
SW01: Well, it's not like they have a huge number of nice democratic folks to pick from.

Web/Talak: that sentence can be read two ways:D

SW01
08-09-2008, 07:16 PM
SW01: Well, it's not like they have a huge number of nice democratic folks to pick from.

True, if it came down to a choice between Romanov, Yeltsin or Putin, I'd probably go with Romanov too!

Web Rider & Talak - mur'phon meant Lenin AND the last tsar.

Samuel Dravis
08-09-2008, 09:45 PM
http://img58.imageshack.us/img58/4719/681rl5.jpg

Saakashvili has such a nice smile.

SW01
08-09-2008, 09:51 PM
Saakashvili has such a nice smile.

Yes...who would imagine such a person launching a surprise attack? I expected something more like this::dev7:

:lol:

Corinthian
08-09-2008, 09:59 PM
What are you talking about? He smiles like a shark.

SW01
08-09-2008, 10:10 PM
Compare him to Medvedev:
http://publiuspundit.com/medvedev.jpg

Corinthian
08-09-2008, 10:35 PM
...and HE smiles like a pedophile.

GodsillY
08-09-2008, 11:00 PM
I take the Shark over the Pedophile anyday lol.

Det. Bart Lasiter
08-09-2008, 11:38 PM
At nine I'm pretty sure I'd have preferred to have been diddled than eaten.

EnderWiggin
08-10-2008, 12:15 AM
At nine I'm pretty sure I'd have preferred to have been diddled than eaten.

And suddenly, many things about Jmac make sense. :xp:

_EW_

Talak Sana
08-10-2008, 08:48 AM
Which one is that?

Have a look at the second line under my avatar.

...and HE smiles like a pedophile.

I think that's why Putin selected him as his successor - cause pedophiles are easy to control.

The_Catto
08-10-2008, 09:24 AM
I honestly thought that people were talking about the State of Georgia. Not the country.
I was just a wee bit confused until I found out it was the country. It all cleared up for me then :P

Being in Australia, I'm not too sure about these facts, but isn't America allies with Georgia? If so, won't they go to aid for them? And if they do, isn't China good friends with Russia?
I'm not so sure, but I think thats not a very good thing ... WWIII anyone???

(Again, I'm not to up with this whole issue. Just heard about it and I thought I heard somewhere with America being allies with Georgia.)

Talak Sana
08-10-2008, 09:33 AM
Is it just me or does this sound a little like Jedi aiding the Republic against Mandalorians.

The_Catto
08-10-2008, 09:36 AM
^^^ How so?

Ctrl Alt Del
08-10-2008, 09:58 AM
Being in Australia, I'm not too sure about these facts, but isn't America allies with Georgia? If so, won't they go to aid for them?
The US is, however, there are other factors to be considered. The last thing the government could want is another Iraq.

And if they do, isn't China good friends with Russia?
Nope.

EnderWiggin
08-10-2008, 12:30 PM
The US is, however, there are other factors to be considered. The last thing the government could want is another Iraq.




You'd think that would be the case, but....

_EW_

SW01
08-10-2008, 02:14 PM
Hey! Looks like the Russians have the better of it - the Georgians claim to be calling for ceasefire, but Russia says it doesn't know anything about it. Also, Russian forces seem to be in control of most of SO.

BBC News Article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7552659.stm)

What do you all think will happen if they press on into Georgia?

mur'phon
08-10-2008, 02:25 PM
Depends on what the west do, if Georgia get support, it'll either end diplomatically quite fast, or we'll have WW3 on our hands. If Georgia dosen't get support, then Saakashvili better look for a new home.

Web Rider
08-10-2008, 02:30 PM
You'd think that would be the case, but....

_EW_
...but since we're not giving anything other than our moral support, it suggests a desire not to get involved militarily.

Have a look at the second line under my avatar.
oops, heh, I don't know much about Estonia to be honest.

Hey! Looks like the Russians have the better of it - the Georgians claim to be calling for ceasefire, but Russia says it doesn't know anything about it. Also, Russian forces seem to be in control of most of SO.

BBC News Article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7552659.stm)

What do you all think will happen if they press on into Georgia?

according to my news reports this morning, Russia already has with airstrikes.

EnderWiggin
08-10-2008, 02:59 PM
...but since we're not giving anything other than our moral support, it suggests a desire not to get involved militarily.


I was just suggesting that we've made bad decisions in the past. No need for a rebuttal.

_EW_

Darth Xander
08-10-2008, 05:27 PM
Compare him to Medvedev:
http://publiuspundit.com/medvedev.jpgThat just creepy.

~Xander

SW01
08-10-2008, 05:38 PM
[QUOTE=Web Rider;2507809according to my news reports this morning, Russia already has with airstrikes.[/QUOTE]

That's right, the Georgians claim that airports around Tbilisi have been hit. It's quite worrying that Russia says it has heard nothing about a ceasefire (if the Georgians are telling the truth.)

They are also claiming that Russia has landed troops in another seperatist area via the Black Sea.

mur'phon
08-10-2008, 05:59 PM
*Moans* Not Abkhazia too. With the Russian Black Sea fleet mobilized, Georgia better hope for some western intervention soon. As for Russia not hearing about a cease fire, well, at least they aren't dismising it out of hand, only for the moment.

Web Rider
08-10-2008, 06:14 PM
I was just suggesting that we've made bad decisions in the past. No need for a rebuttal.

_EW_

my bad, I was reading it as though you were intoning that the administration had plans for intervention.

That's right, the Georgians claim that airports around Tbilisi have been hit. It's quite worrying that Russia says it has heard nothing about a ceasefire (if the Georgians are telling the truth.)

They are also claiming that Russia has landed troops in another seperatist area via the Black Sea.

I'm not surprised Russia's claiming they haven't heard about it. I met a Russian on the Deviantart forums who didn't even know this was going on.

EnderWiggin
08-10-2008, 06:22 PM
my bad, I was reading it as though you were intoning that the administration had plans for intervention.


No big deal :)


I'm not surprised Russia's claiming they haven't heard about it. I met a Russian on the Deviantart forums who didn't even know this was going on.

Yeah, well. I'd suspect that not many in the US know what's going on either. It seems that the common people are not always completely aware of what happens in current events.

_EW_

SW01
08-10-2008, 09:13 PM
I honestly thought that people were talking about the State of Georgia. Not the country.

Imagine what Bush must have thought when he was told that the Russians had bombed Georgia!
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

GodsillY
08-10-2008, 10:15 PM
Imagine what Bush must have thought when he was told that the Russians had bombed Georgia!
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

All I can see when I imagine that is a bunch of advisors trying to convince Bush it's not the state of Georgia and telling him not to launch the Nuke's :lol:

Web Rider
08-10-2008, 11:04 PM
Yeah, well. I'd suspect that not many in the US know what's going on either. It seems that the common people are not always completely aware of what happens in current events.
_EW_

I'd probably disagree since I went out to pizza about a half hour ago and the Olympics were on and the news interrupted them to talk about the conflict between Russia and Georiga. Considering the mandates the Kremlin set down for Russian media, it's unlikely that they're even allowed to broadcast the existance of this conflict....unless Russia is winning.

Rev7
08-10-2008, 11:12 PM
Depends on what the west do, if Georgia get support, it'll either end diplomatically quite fast, or we'll have WW3 on our hands. If Georgia dosen't get support, then Saakashvili better look for a new home.
Indeed. I choose the diplomatic way. :)

SW01
08-11-2008, 06:51 AM
Indeed. I choose the diplomatic way. :)

Of course that would be preferable, but who is going to pressure Russia if they go on the offensive? The UN is completely powerless - Russia has its Security Council veto, it has never listened to America, and doesn't like us (Britain).

EDIT: Georgia has signed a draft ceasefire with the EU's help: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7553144.stm

Now they are going to approach Medvedev and try to get him to sign - he has claimed that Moscow's military push is complete, so hopefully he will sign and stop this before everyone else gets involved.

Ascendant_Justice
08-11-2008, 11:25 AM
Yeah, well. I'd suspect that not many in the US know what's going on either. It seems that the common people are not always completely aware of what happens in current events.

Yea I think it really depends on who you are. Yesterday I was researching this and I came across a forum in which every poster assumed Georgia was the state and that Russia was bombing it. Needless to say, it was a forum of housewives.

Talak Sana
08-11-2008, 01:49 PM
So, do I understand the current situation correctly: Russian troops advance while Georgia has called ceasefire?

ForeverNight
08-11-2008, 01:54 PM
All I can see when I imagine that is a bunch of advisors trying to convince Bush it's not the state of Georgia and telling him not to launch the Nuke's

I have more faith in the President than you. I think that he would be kept abreast of this development and knew that when they told him that Russia was bombing Georgia it would've been obvious to him that it was the Country Georgia. But, that's just me...

@Ascendant_Justice: you're point being?

Now they are going to approach Medvedev and try to get him to sign - he has claimed that Moscow's military push is complete, so hopefully he will sign and stop this before everyone else gets involved.

Eh, who knows. I doubt that Medvedev (Try saying that one 5 times fast) is the one calling the shots, Putin's playing puppet master right now... and if he wants to bomb Georgia to hell, than that's his prerogative...

Hopefully it won't come to that, but I don't have much faith in Russia right now...

mur'phon
08-11-2008, 02:07 PM
There will be peace in our time, but on their terms:xp:
Seriously though, Russia seem to be the clear winner so far. No western power (as far as I know) have promised their military support. Russia have made it painfully obvious that messing with them is a bad idea, and will be able to decide what the peace will cost Georgia.
The score was 2-0 at half time, unfourtantely, winner takes all:(

FN: no need to say Medvedev, try Dima, easier on the tounge, but still fun to say repeatedly:D

ForeverNight
08-11-2008, 02:18 PM
FN: no need to say Medvedev, try Dima, easier on the tounge, but still fun to say repeatedly

You know... that actually makes a whole lotta sense... something I seem to be running short on lately. Though, Dima just isn't as fun to say five times fast... Or, rather, watching and listening to other people say five times fast.

Ontopic: I don't know much about the Georgian President, so I'm unable to comment on his mental state... but, Russia's in a position of superior power. I know that if I were playing Civilization 3 and had a similar situation, I would just throw the Cease-fire in their face and conquer them right away.

Thankfully, however, this isn't Civ3... nor am I the Russian President. (That would be kinda odd... seeing as I'm an American to begin with and have no aspirations to go to Russia in the future.) However, from what I know of Putin... if he's able to keep up the facade of "What cease fire?" and take the parts he wants... he will.

Should be interesting to watch... from the sidelines... very, very, very far away... and it didn't do anything to embroil the world in WWIII... However, seeing as the reactions I've seen lately point to just that happening....

... Well, let's pray that Russia sees those papers now.

tk102
08-11-2008, 02:31 PM
Pres. Saakashvili of Georgia wrote a letter to the Wall Street Journal published today concerning his view of the current situation, of what led up to it, and what ramifications he sees. It also explains why Russia has expanded their campaign into the northwest territory of Abkhazia.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121841306186328421.html?mod=opinion_main_comment aries

Astor
08-11-2008, 05:59 PM
Georgia 2 - Russia 4 - Ukraine 1?

Russian troops and armour have now advanced well beyond S. Ossetia, penetrating as far into the Georgian interior as Gori, as well as forcing Georgian forces from Senaki and dismantling a military base.

Russian troops have now also entered Abkhazia, and the Russian Black Sea fleet has engaged Georgian naval forces, sinking one missile cruiser.

And now, apparently the Ukrainian Navy is refusing to allow the return of Russian ships to their fleet bases. I hope that Ukraine doesn't get involved, as that would likely make the situation worse.

I have to say i'm surprised that the Russians are still fighting. Given the apparent strength of the Red Army (it's still is, pretty much), and that Georgia is clearly punching out of her weight class, Russia should have already won.

But I don't know why some people are focusing on Medvedev, it's clear Putin still holds all the cards.

tk102
08-11-2008, 06:04 PM
Ukraine knows they're next.

SW01
08-11-2008, 06:15 PM
I have to say i'm surprised that the Russians are still fighting. Given the apparent strength of the Red Army (it's still is, pretty much), and that Georgia is clearly punching out of her weight class, Russia should have already won.

Russia was running on the excuse that it was protecting its citizens in S. Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc. so couldn't just steamroll over it - I don't think the other world powers would be as neutral as they seem to be if they had. Although, God help Georgia if they break any ceasefire, same for Ukraine.

But I don't know why some people are focusing on Medvedev, it's clear Putin still holds all the cards.

Putin is probably still pulling the strings - he likely always will. You must admit, it is clever the way he has manoeuvred to keep power but stay within the constitution.

Astor
08-11-2008, 06:27 PM
Ukraine knows they're next.

Oh of course. Russia won't stop with Georgia - they've publicly claimed that they want a return to the 'old ways' - large Fleets patrolling the seas, Russian Jets scaring NATO Forces - which is already happening.

I'm actually surprised Ukraine is being so bold - but they're telling Russia they can't be bullied like they used to.

Unfortunately it's a situation that won't end until Russia has a cabinet that isn't made up of KGB officers, or veterans of the Cold War.

They want to rebuild the USSR - the fact Russian forces were already on the Georgian border is proof that they were planning or expecting this to happen. The fact that the Russian 'Peacekeepers' were veterans of Chechnya was just a coincidence, if you'll believe Russian reports.

The Russians had carefully planned for it to happen on the day of the Olympics, too, I think. When the entire world was watching China, Russia jerked their heads in their direction, and forced us to see what they could do.

SW01
08-11-2008, 06:33 PM
The Russians had carefully planned for it to happen on the day of the Olympics, too, I think. When the entire world was watching China, Russia jerked their heads in their direction, and forced us to see what they could do.

Georgia made the first move on South Ossetia, by the way.:)

But yeah, the presence of Russian 'peacekeepers' is quite suspect...

Astor
08-11-2008, 06:41 PM
Putin is probably still pulling the strings - he likely always will. You must admit, it is clever the way he has manoeuvred to keep power but stay within the constitution.

Oh yes, very clever, but he seems to be the only person who thinks that nobody's noticed his ploys.

Georgia made the first move on South Ossetia, by the way.:)

But yeah, the presence of Russian 'peacekeepers' is quite suspect...

Oh, i'm aware of Georgia's initiation of the conflict, but Russia's response didn't occur until the 8th - and I don't think the Black Sea fleet could have mobilised that quick without prior planning.

But, i've been thinking that the Russian occupation as far as Gori might be an attempt to create a 'buffer-zone' - to prevent further Georgian shelling of Ossetia, and possible attack on Abkhazia.

The Georgian airforce barely numbers 40 craft, so it's irrelevant in terms of air superiority - they'd be shot down before they could do anything, and the Georgian navy has 18 boats - none of which do much with a Russian Fleet on the doorstep.

So, shelling is the only option that Georgia would have, and Russia has now denied them that.

At least, I hope that's what Russia's doing, and not going for a whole occupation. But they have stated that Pres. Saakashvili should face a war crimes tribunal...

mur'phon
08-11-2008, 07:01 PM
And now, apparently the Ukrainian Navy is refusing to allow the return of Russian ships to their fleet bases. I hope that Ukraine doesn't get involved, as that would likely make the situation worse.

But at least provide Russia with a nasty speed bump, the kind that'll cost you thousands at a mech, and more importantly might force the west to react.

But I don't know why some people are focusing on Medvedev, it's clear Putin still holds all the cards.

Because Dima is getting more and more powerfull simply by being press, while Vlad gets weaker. Provided Vlad dosen't do anything drastic, he'll be press for real. Even now he can oppose Vlad on certain issues, Vlad might be the current pupeteer, but his pupet is learning how to do thing without the strings.

Putin is probably still pulling the strings - he likely always will. You must admit, it is clever the way he has manoeuvred to keep power but stay within the constitution.

Vlad could have changed the constitution easily, that he hasn't makes me believe he wants to ensure a smooth transition of power, and a way to keep his wealth.

Oh of course. Russia won't stop with Georgia - they've publicly claimed that they want a return to the 'old ways' - large Fleets patrolling the seas, Russian Jets scaring NATO Forces - which is already happening.

Hardly, Russian leaders aren't insane, counquering their neighbours would be worse than taking Iraq, sure, they'd get the teritory, but it would hardly be worth it. Now, turning them into satelites is another matter.

But yeah, the presence of Russian 'peacekeepers' is quite suspect...

Not really, it was part of an old agreement.

edit: Vlad and Dima hates Sakasshvili, they want a pro Russia guy to pilot the satelite

SW01
08-11-2008, 07:05 PM
Oh yes, very clever, but he seems to be the only person who thinks that nobody's noticed his ploys.

Who knows what the Russians believe? They are, after all, the only ones who could stop Putin from grabbing power behind the scenes. From other posts in this thread, the Russian government seems adept at the fine art of concealment of fact from the citizenry.

At least, I hope that's what Russia's doing, and not going for a whole occupation. But they have stated that Pres. Saakashvili should face a war crimes tribunal...

Annexation of some kind could be looming - secure the seperatist regions first, then strike from three positions (S. Ossetia, Abkhazia and...the other one). 'Dima' (that's for you mur'phon:xp:) did say:

"I must protect the life and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are. We will not allow their deaths to go unpunished"

tk102
08-11-2008, 07:16 PM
I'm actually surprised Ukraine is being so bold - but they're telling Russia they can't be bullied like they used to. Why does this surprise you? They haven't forgotten how Russia attempted to rig their elections in '04. Arguably, Yushchenko is "the face" of Russian defiance. The fact that Russia is using their ports to stage an invasion is the last thing they would placate.

According to Russia, Ukraine has been selling tanks, helicopters and SAMs to Georgia. So if "peacekeeping" is the overt explanation for actions in Georgia, it seems reasonable to expect similar actions against Ukraine by extension, along with Ukraine's unwillingness to provide harbor for the Russian navy simply adding fuel to the fire.

SW01
08-11-2008, 08:21 PM
Oh hell...

Bush has made a statement in which he openly accuses Russia of trying to depose the Georgian government, and condemns them. Further, Russian forces have entered Georgia from Abkhazia and S. Ossetia.

I hate being right (well, close enough...)

Annexation of some kind could be looming - secure the seperatist regions first, then strike from three positions (S. Ossetia, Abkhazia and...the other one).

Web Rider
08-12-2008, 12:55 AM
The existance of Russian "peacekeepers" is not suspect. The existance of Russian peacekeepers was part of a deal worked out by the UN, Georgia, S Ossetia and Russia quite a long time ago. Forces from all 3 have been in S Ossetia to "keep the peace" since then. It's obvious of course that the Russian forces held the advantage even then.

As for the Ukraine, it's nice to see them standing up before Russia gets a chance to put them down. From what I heard, lots of old Soviet nukes ended up in the Ukraine when the USSR broke up.

Rev7
08-12-2008, 02:51 AM
Am I mistaken, or is there supposed to be peace during the Olympics?

True_Avery
08-12-2008, 04:13 AM
Am I mistaken, or is there supposed to be peace during the Olympics?
Yeah, isn't the world supposed to be peaceful to one another during this time?

I mean, an armed conflict of a smaller country by a world superpower during the Olympics would just looks bad.

Oh wait...

On the subject of the Georgia/Russia conflict, I hope it gets solved cleanly. Wouldn't want Russia thinking it can take over neighboring territories simply because nobody will stand up against them.

SW01
08-12-2008, 10:35 AM
On the subject of the Georgia/Russia conflict, I hope it gets solved cleanly. Wouldn't want Russia thinking it can take over neighboring territories simply because nobody will stand up against them.

Hope springs eternal, but a peaceful solution is beginning to seem less and less likely, given the widespread condemnation of Russia by other world powers, yet their continued advance.

Cold War 2: The Sakashvilli Legacy anyone?

mur'phon
08-12-2008, 11:28 AM
It seems like a lot of you think that the russian media is on a short leash, it isn't. There are independent media, and they have a fair bit of freedom.
They are covering the war, mostly with Russian bias, but some small ones take the Georgians side. Sure, the state/pro-state media dominate, but as one editor in a state owned newspaper put it: "I am not told what I can or can't write, but like any other newspapers, we have to give the people what they want to survive. And right now, Putin is God, and woe betide the sales of any paper who blasphemes".

'Dima' (that's for you mur'phon)

Russians love to make long names that is a pain to write, which is why they have a shorter version of every tounge twister. Dima=Dimitry.

given the widespread condemnation of Russia by other world powers, yet their continued advance.

When someone rob and rape your neighbour, don't be surprised if he dosen't stop after you tel him he is a bad boy.

Astor
08-12-2008, 11:57 AM
Hope springs eternal, but a peaceful solution is beginning to seem less and less likely, given the widespread condemnation of Russia by other world powers, yet their continued advance.

Well, there's reports that Medvedev (or Putin) have ordered Russian troops to cease 'Operations in Georgia'.

But this could all be a load of hot air. I just hope Georgia doesn't try and fight back if the Russians withdraw.

Rev7
08-12-2008, 01:42 PM
Why is there not peace? (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/01/content_6986319.htm)

SW01
08-12-2008, 01:50 PM
Why is there not peace? (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/01/content_6986319.htm)

Now that the UN has agreed on it, peace (ceasefire at least) has fallen. Russia has not used its veto, so it seems as though they will abide by it. BBC Article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7555858.stm)

Hopefully now this thread won't become 'The road to World War 3: The modders' view.'

Edit: 100th post! :emodanc:

ForeverNight
08-12-2008, 02:54 PM
You never know...

Though, looking at Russia (Or, should I say the Soviets) during their era and the UN... how many UN agreements did the Russian's follow when it hindered them?

I don't have numbers, but I believe it wasn't that many.

And, since most of the Russian Government is the Old Guard, it stands to reason that they'll be following in the same pattern.

Oh well, it could be the calm before the storm, after all, the Ceasefire allows them to move in more troops so that when its lifted they'll be able to blitz right into the Heart of Georgia...

But, since it isn't happening today... I still have hope!

That is, until my cynicism sets in again

SW01
08-12-2008, 04:06 PM
Though, looking at Russia (Or, should I say the Soviets) during their era and the UN... how many UN agreements did the Russian's follow when it hindered them?

Thinking on it, which major power has ever obeyed the UN when it contradicted their wishes? Think the US (and UK:()and Iraq? It's similar to the old Leagu of Nations, except it hasn't realised it yet...

Also, if I have understood it correctly, the ceasefire is based around the Olympic period. Once that passes, who knows what may happen.

I know this - Ukraine and Georgia would be stupid to challenge Russia. They have made a show of power that won't soon be forgotten.

mur'phon
08-12-2008, 04:27 PM
Why is there not peace?

Because it happens to be inconvienient for Russia.

Now that the UN has agreed on it, peace (ceasefire at least) has fallen. Russia has not used its veto, so it seems as though they will abide by it.

They agreed on it a long time ago, so they haven't abided by it, (look at the dates in R7s article)

Oh well, it could be the calm before the storm, after all, the Ceasefire allows them to move in more troops so that when its lifted they'll be able to blitz right into the Heart of Georgia...

Unless Russia wants to have a lot of "sececionist" territories, that's unlikely to happen, again I think it will be peace in our time, but on their terms:(

But, since it isn't happening today... I still have hope!

So have I, finaly got the paperwork done to go to the motherland, hope I'm not velcomed by a mushrom cloud:D

I know this - Ukraine and Georgia would be stupid to challenge Russia. They have made a show of power that won't soon be forgotten.

And the west, in this case the US because Russia has a stranglehold on the EUs energy supply, would be insane not to.

Edit: 100th post!

I'ts good to be in Camelot...:xp:

SW01
08-12-2008, 04:43 PM
And the west, in this case the US because Russia has a stranglehold on the EUs energy supply, would be insane not to.

I agree. The EU is not unified enough to strike, or support anyone, against Russia if it becomes aggressive towards us (though I believe we could hold our ground, I don't think we could push back), and it wouldn't be in our interests to join in a conflict against them if they were not rattling the sabre at us.

The USA has, through all this, seemed very weak and inconsequential. The only action I saw was Bush's speech in condemnation, and a few diplomats dispatched to the region. It seemed that the EU and UN did the most work. The US now needs to find some way (preferably non-violent) to assert itself to discourage renewed hostilities.

Astor
08-12-2008, 04:49 PM
it wouldn't be in our interests to join in a conflict against them if they were not rattling the sabre at us.

True. It's not the like good old days when we had the Empire behind us, and our Navy was best in the world.

And I think now, even if Russia was rattling the sabre, it would take something serious to actually force us into conflict. Especially with our current PM.


The USA has, through all this, seemed very weak and inconsequential. The only action I saw was Bush's speech in condemnation, and a few diplomats dispatched to the region.

You could tell by Bush's tone that there's nothing he can do about it - the Russians know that, and he knows it. They sure did pick the right time to do this.

SW01
08-12-2008, 05:14 PM
True. It's not the like good old days when we had the Empire behind us, and our Navy was best in the world.

Oh, how I long for the Empire to return :(

And I think now, even if Russia was rattling the sabre, it would take something serious to actually force us into conflict. Especially with our current PM.

Too right. Brown not only wouldn't do it, he doesn't have the support for it. I don't know that Cameron would be any better...

Astor
08-12-2008, 06:12 PM
Oh, how I long for the Empire to return

We've still got the SAS, for now...

On the topic of the war, it seems my theory of a buffer-zone was almost right. They've both stopped fighting, so hopefully diplomacy can resume.

But also, the Russian push to Gori might also be a propaganda move. Stalin was born in Gori. So it could have been also been a move to show that they're not willing to allow the home of their greatest hero be occupied by their enemies.

jonathan7
08-12-2008, 07:56 PM
Oh, how I long for the Empire to return :(

Why on earth would you want the Empire back - you do realise there was a reason we got rid of it....

On-topic, we need some real intervention from Europe/US soon - something that will at least give them Russians something to think about.

SW01
08-12-2008, 08:02 PM
Why on earth would you want the Empire back - you do realise there was a reason we got rid of it....

On-topic, we need some real intervention from Europe/US soon - something that will at least give them Russians something to think about.

We didn't get rid of it so much as it fell apart. We still have some foreign possessions by the way. :) (Fair enough they consist mainly of islands, but it's better than nothing). At least it gave us a voice that people actually listened to...

But on the second point, I totally agree - we need to show that we still have some power (Europe and US both) or we are going to have warlords, dictators and other, more ambitious nations thumbing their noses at us for the rest of time.

Rev7
08-13-2008, 02:27 AM
Georgia agrees to Russian-French plan to settle conflict (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.russia.war/index.html)

U.S. may seek to punish Russia for Georgia conflict (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.us/index.html)

Da_Man_2423
08-13-2008, 04:19 AM
Georgia agrees to Russian-French plan to settle conflict (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.russia.war/index.html)

I'm sure Georgia is more than willing to end this conflict quickly.


U.S. may seek to punish Russia for Georgia conflict (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.us/index.html)

Probably shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

mur'phon
08-13-2008, 05:51 AM
I agree. The EU is not unified enough to strike, or support anyone, against Russia if it becomes aggressive towards us (though I believe we could hold our ground, I don't think we could push back), and it wouldn't be in our interests to join in a conflict against them if they were not rattling the sabre at us.

How is it not in our interest to stop Russias "satelite" programm from getting off the ground? As for pushing back, it would be quite possible, especially if it could push through Norway.

You could tell by Bush's tone that there's nothing he can do about it - the Russians know that, and he knows it. They sure did pick the right time to do this.

Oh, he can do quite a few things, both military, diplomatic. Or are you telling me that the superpower isn't a superpower?

But also, the Russian push to Gori might also be a propaganda move. Stalin was born in Gori. So it could have been also been a move to show that they're not willing to allow the home of their greatest hero be occupied by their enemies.

No, if it was, you'd have the Russian media trumpeting to the masses.

At least it gave us a voice that people actually listened to...

Too bad it sounded like this:vadar:

Probably shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Well, since the U.S have so far just been telling Russia what a bad boy it is, and what punishemnts it might recieve, then at least I would be pleasantly surprised if they actually get punished.

SW01
08-13-2008, 08:44 AM
How is it not in our interest to stop Russias "satelite" programm from getting off the ground? As for pushing back, it would be quite possible, especially if it could push through Norway.

I just think it would be an overly risky business for Europe to strike in what is essentially a foreign conflict. That's how long, destructive wars come about. (The Great War, for example, of 1914-1918)

Oh, he can do quite a few things, both military, diplomatic. Or are you telling me that the superpower isn't a superpower?

Agreed, there is plenty he can do, the question is, does he have the will to do something? Also, let's face it, this isn't going to be Bush's problem for much longer. Better for him to let the Democrats deal with it when he is gone.

Too bad it sounded like this:vadar:
:rofl: True, but people seem more likely to listen when a) they are terrified of you; or b)when they know you will back up what you say.

Talak Sana
08-13-2008, 10:17 AM
:rofl: True, but people seem more likely to listen when a) they are terrified of you

I heard in a talk-shot that that's how Russians think - if people are terrified of you, then they respect you.

EnderWiggin
08-13-2008, 11:49 AM
I heard in a talk-shot that that's how Russians think - if people are terrified of you, then they respect you.

http://ww1.prweb.com/prfiles/2005/02/22/211596/Theprincebook.jpg

;)

_EW_

tk102
08-13-2008, 11:55 AM
Agreed, there is plenty he can do, the question is, does he have the will to do something? Also, let's face it, this isn't going to be Bush's problem for much longer. Better for him to let the Democrats deal with it when he is gone.
Being excluded from the G8 and taking economic sanctions akin to the Cold War era would certainly hurt Russia's pocketbook. It's not so much America's will to act that's in question here as the EU's will since they are recipients of Russian natural gas and oil.

SW01
08-13-2008, 01:59 PM
Yes, EW...
...it is better to be feared than to be loved. - N.M. Pearls of wisdom...there are many in that work.

EnderWiggin
08-13-2008, 04:05 PM
Yes, EW...
...it is better to be feared than to be loved. - N.M. Pearls of wisdom...there are many in that work.
It's actually really fun to read.

_EW_

Web Rider
08-13-2008, 06:19 PM
Oh, he can do quite a few things, both military, diplomatic. Or are you telling me that the superpower isn't a superpower?

There are plenty of things ANYONE can do, but it's not a question of ability or will, it's a question of should. In the long run, is it better to start what would quickly become a world war over Georgia, and Russia wanting to expand? IMO, it's not.

Was the cold war worth it? Would it have been better to nuke the heck outta Russia before they got nukes? IMO, I think between those two options, the cold war was worth it.

And it seems some diplomatic solutions are being reached between Russia and closer countries. So US intervention is not necessary. Europe needs to know they need to be able to deal with local problems themselves. I do not believe we need to continue to be the world's babysitter.

jonathan7
08-15-2008, 06:30 AM
Interesting article for you all...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4534358.ece

@WR - the only large nation in the EU - who still will back diplomacy with military is the UK - but Brown, is in such a weak position as PM I can't see him doing anything.

The one ray of sunshine, is that nations like Ukraine have realised, the importance of what is occurring, and Russia's wish to create satellites may well backfire.

Being excluded from the G8 and taking economic sanctions akin to the Cold War era would certainly hurt Russia's pocketbook. It's not so much America's will to act that's in question here as the EU's will since they are recipients of Russian natural gas and oil.

QFT - Unfortunately, I think fat westerners have forgotten what sacrifice is, and doing something because it is the right thing to do, but will cost you, is no longer something many will do; after all cheaper fuel is worth more to many Europeans than the lives and freedoms of Georgians - so why irritate the Russian machine?

ChAiNz.2da
08-15-2008, 09:19 AM
Well, I'm sure this is just gonna add logs to the fire:

(CNN) -- Poland and the United States have signed a preliminary deal to place part of a U.S. ballistic missile defense system in Poland, a plan that has drawn sharp objections from Russia.

source (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/15/poland.us.shield/index.html)

* wonders if this will impact the new draft of 'firmed up' cease-fire Condy delivers soon *

EXzSoldier
08-15-2008, 11:07 AM
when cease fire lifted poor georgia will be gone they're tiny compared to russia which is on 2 continets if i rembemer correctly. 1st i wouldnt like RussiaN Peackeepers in my countrey wouldnt neccsarly open fire on them but tell them to get the hell out.

SW01
08-15-2008, 11:33 AM
1st i wouldnt like RussiaN Peackeepers in my countrey wouldnt neccsarly open fire on them but tell them to get the hell out.

Unfortunately, massive nations with desperately powerful armies and some imperialist leanings don't take being told to sod off very well.:xp:

But, if Georgia renews hostilities after the ceasefire, God help them...if Russia strikes first, we're all in trouble...

I really hope that Russia is as hesitant about another huge-scale war as the rest of the world is.

EXzSoldier
08-15-2008, 11:42 AM
i agree hopefully Georgia wont renew war with russia.

EnderWiggin
08-15-2008, 01:44 PM
when cease fire lifted poor georgia will be gone they're tiny compared to russia which is on 2 continets if i rembemer correctly. 1st i wouldnt like RussiaN Peackeepers in my countrey wouldnt neccsarly open fire on them but tell them to get the hell out.

Is English not your first language?

_EW_

Astor
08-15-2008, 06:48 PM
I really hope that Russia is as hesitant about another huge-scale war as the rest of the world is.

I don't think that a country with a desperately powerful army and imperialist leanings that also happens to control Europe's power supply would be all that hesistant about starting a war. :lol:

mur'phon
08-18-2008, 11:39 AM
I just think it would be an overly risky business for Europe to strike in what is essentially a foreign conflict. That's how long, destructive wars come about. (The Great War, for example, of 1914-1918)

I don't care it's a foreign conflict, only what the cosequnces of it is, in my oppinion, it'd be worth it. I also doubt it would turn into a great war.

There are plenty of things ANYONE can do, but it's not a question of ability or will, it's a question of should. In the long run, is it better to start what would quickly become a world war over Georgia, and Russia wanting to expand? IMO, it's not.

I really doubt it would turn into a world war, simply because Russia isn't powerfull enough to stand against the west for long. Besides, it's not just about Georgia, but about much of the former eastern bloc, for that imo, it'd be worth it.

Times article by from J7

While I agree with the "spirit" of the article, it contains a fair bit of propaganda bull.

I don't think that a country with a desperately powerful army and imperialist leanings that also happens to control Europe's power supply would be all that hesistant about starting a war.

As long as it stands to benefit from it, sure, which is why Russia must be punished for its actions if we want to avoid another war.

Astor
08-18-2008, 11:57 AM
I don't care it's a foreign conflict, only what the cosequnces of it is, in my oppinion, it'd be worth it. I also doubt it would turn into a great war.

But remember, though, that a lot of people thought that about the Great War.


I really doubt it would turn into a world war, simply because Russia isn't powerfull enough to stand against the west for long. Besides, it's not just about Georgia, but about much of the former eastern bloc, for that imo, it'd be worth it.

Oh, I agree, but can we trust Russia not to resort to the pressing the button when it all goes 'belly-up'?

mur'phon
08-18-2008, 12:01 PM
But remember, though, that a lot of people thought that about the Great War.

I asume you talk about WW1? If so, what magnificent alternative to the war would you propose?

Oh, I agree, but can we trust Russia not to resort to the pressing the button when it all goes 'belly-up'?

No more than any other nuclear armed country.

Astor
08-18-2008, 12:07 PM
I asume you talk about WW1? If so, what magnificent alternative to the war would you propose?

At the moment? I don't have one.

I was merely saying that a lot of people thought that a global conflict was silly over a little matter in the balkans, yet one happened.

mur'phon
08-18-2008, 12:18 PM
Ah, but WW1 wasn't about a little matter in the balkans, similarly, WW3 will not be about a small former eastern bloc country, though it might become the trigger for it.

Astor
08-18-2008, 12:34 PM
Ah, but WW1 wasn't about a little matter in the balkans, similarly, WW3 will not be about a small former eastern bloc country, though it might become the trigger for it.

Then we should watch Russia's next moves very closely.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next event occurs with Ukraine. Ukraine's Naval forces Commanders have said that Russia need's to apply for return to port 3days in advance - and they aren't backing down. Source (http://www.ukrainianjournal.com/index.php?w=article&id=6998).

And now, apparently, the Russians are considering sending Naval forces to the Caribbean, which, of course, Russia's biggest friend in South America has welcomed. Source (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a_z80meUFko0&refer=latin_america).

mur'phon
08-18-2008, 12:43 PM
Well, if we are content to watch, then the script will be written in Moscov, wich I don't think will be good for the world.

tranquill
08-28-2008, 11:32 AM
Russia-Georgia conflict created a big headache for Israel which armed and trained Georgians for years - and now suddenly Russians threaten retaliation by supplying S-300 SAM batteries to Syria. Here is what a prominent Israeli analyst says: http://samsonblinded.org/blog/on-russia-georgia-and-israel.htm

SW01
08-28-2008, 11:52 AM
We now also have the EU discussing sanctions against Russia. From what I have heard, Russia couldn't care less.

This whole thing is beginning to seem a little strange - most Western nations seem to support separatism rather than hinder it. Drawing on the example of Northern Ireland, the likes of America seemed to support the goals of the minority in trying to separate us from the UK. If reports from that region are true, then the majorities in S.Ossetia and Abkhazia desire to separate from Georgia. Why, then, is the West supporting the nation that tried to hammer them into the ground? What of democracy and all that? I think that it is simply because Russia supported the breakaway regions that nations like America backed Georgia.

Litofsky
08-28-2008, 04:01 PM
Why, then, is the West supporting the nation that tried to hammer them into the ground? What of democracy and all that? I think that it is simply because Russia supported the breakaway regions that nations like America backed Georgia.

Perhaps because strategic areas/money take precedence over the rights of minorities? If I recall correctly Britain shutdown one of their pipelines in Georgia, but that's not the biggest issue.

Georgia is seeking NATO membership. Imagine how Russia must feel! Most of their former-Communist, eastern bloc countries are turning to the EU, leaving Russia alone, geographically. Not to mention that if Georgia is accepted into NATO, it's will be the equivalent of a massive roadblock to Russia. And who doesn't want to back Russia into a massive corner?

SW01
08-28-2008, 04:28 PM
And who doesn't want to back Russia into a massive corner?

We may do well to remember what they say about a creature when cornered...

Litofsky
08-28-2008, 05:32 PM
We may do well to remember what they say about a creature when cornered...

I seem to recall that quote referring to a creature in its dying moments. ;)

SW01
08-28-2008, 06:23 PM
Maybe it's about a cornered rat going for the throat...can't remember. There is the wounded animal one too. I think both may apply, though.

Anyway, I also heard that China is now backing Moscow. That follows a pattern that has emerged recently. We oppose Zimbabwe, Russia and China veto sanctions. America doesn't trust Iran, Russia and China give their support to them.

Litofsky
08-28-2008, 06:47 PM
Maybe it's about a cornered rat going for the throat...can't remember. There is the wounded animal one too. I think both may apply, though.
The fights are deadliest in the last few months of the war.

Anyway, I also heard that China is now backing Moscow. That follows a pattern that has emerged recently. We oppose Zimbabwe, Russia and China veto sanctions. America doesn't trust Iran, Russia and China give their support to them.
The politics of the future, perhaps? The USA and the EU versus China and Russia?

SW01
08-28-2008, 07:11 PM
Perhaps. A second 'iron curtain', maybe? The Zimbabwe thing really was a shock to me. I may have expected their reaction over Iran, as Russia trades with the country, but it's hard to see how they can reason supporting Mugabe. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised...they have more or less the same type of regime.

Litofsky
08-28-2008, 07:56 PM
An economic iron curtain, as opposed to a geographic one? That would be far more... destructive. I recall the Versailles Treaty of WWI, and how that charged Germany with the debt for WWI. Physical wounds heal. Psychological/spiritual wounds take much longer, and never fully heal.

I wonder if these few, semi-isolated events will blossom into something larger and far more volatile?

Astor
09-17-2008, 05:35 AM
Ukraine's Government collapses over response to Georgia Conflict (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jtUOmlRyOSVtaxRetvox2V-OZ_fQ)

Can I smell Russian involvement? Probably not. But it is interesting that a small conflict could do so much.

mur'phon
09-17-2008, 07:14 AM
Iron curtain? Hardly, Russia needs europe as a market, and Europe needs the petroleum. Besides, feel good/pork diplomacy still takes place, take me for instance, going to a Russian/Norwegian school (without an internet conection, which is why I have been away).

Ctrl Alt Del
09-17-2008, 08:58 AM
Perhaps. A second 'iron curtain', maybe?

Hardly. The threats issued by NATO and Russia are, well, just threats. And empty ones at that. They both know how destructive for all a conflict now would be.