No, a year or two is way too short a time, both hi-def formats have only really been available for a few months at the moment, but think of how long it took for DVD's to replace VHS and you'll have yourself a decent time frame ($35 for a DVD was pretty much a standard price back when they were first introduced).
Like I said, I'm not looking to buy any until both the movies and the players come way down in price. At the moment I'm personally backing Blu-Ray for the reasons I stated above as well as the fact that it's been developed by Sony, and frankly, they need a win after the whole Betamax fiasco.
Oh ello? Blu ray has new Region Codes
if anyones interested. HD DVD has no such region coding at the moment.