I voted for the no way option since I think it's the closest to what is likely to happen, though I do still believe there is a small chance we might get a KotOR3. I wish I had special knowledge of what LucasArts is doing in regards to another KotOR, but since I don't, I can only speculate like everyone else. My perspective is shaped by many years in a large corporate environment where I dealt a lot with IT projects, their projected costs and benefits, the politics of getting a project done, etc. So based on that, here is my best guess as to the way things are going...
KotOR3 is still being considered by LucasArts. Unfortunately, during the meetings on choosing which game(s) to develop next, the amount of potential games LucasArts has with a net profit potential greater than KotOR3 has been equal to or greater than the number of games LucasArts wishes to be developing at the time. Worse (for us), is that LucasArts seems to only want a very limited number of new Star Wars games out each year. This means that by the time LucasArts is ready to do a new one there is an increasing greater chance they will have a new and "better" game idea to try instead. (Think about this for a moment, for people whose job is to develop game ideas, then the best way to "prove" their competence is to come up with something better than the existing ideas, which motivates them to try to sell their new concept as best they can. Therefore there are almost certainly LucasArts employees who are effectively working hard to make sure we won't get a KotOR3.) Also as time passes, the existing base of eager KotOR fans awaiting a KotOR3 is shrinking, something that they are surely aware of at LucasArts. Then there is their new Star Wars game, the Force Unleashed (which does look pretty cool, if more in the general style of a FPS using the Force as opposed to a CRPG - at least based on what little I have seen on their site). If this is successful, I expect LucasArts will be much more interested in a sequel for that, as opposed to going back to KotOR.
I could have gone on, but to me it pretty much boils down to a small and ever decreasing chance of LucasArts doing a KotOR3. My main hope is a change in key personnel in LucasArts, or a change in their policy of making so few new Star Wars games.