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Old 03-07-2008, 04:17 PM   #9
Achilles
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
Well, Clinton I believe should stay in. She has every reason to. The delegate count is close, and I think she can get the superdelegates if she wins PA and wins Michigan and Florida (who will revote, and she will get at least one of those, Florida.)
I think you're assuming that it's closer than it really is. Hillary is not going to win the race by chipping into Barack's lead 4 delegates at a time. She needs landslide victories, not 3 percentage point wins that are touted as "comebacks" by mainstream media.

Yes, you're absolutely correct that superdelegates have a lot of sway in this race, but ask yourself why so many SDs are still uncommitted. Could it be because they are waiting to see who has the delegate lead? Why? So that they can turn around and throw their support behind the person who's losing and not raising as much money as their opponent? It could happen, but I'm not betting on it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
The problem with the Democrats is the proportional district voting system. If you win 58% of the vote, you don't get 58% of that state's delegates. You get whatever district's delegates you won. The idea is so that you need a broad base across the state, not just concentrated areas. Upon reflection, this may have been used to stop minorities from running up votes in their districts for certain candidates (particularly Jesse Jackson). Same reason there's superdelegates: a check on who's being elected.
First, not every Democratic primary is proportional; a handful are winner-take-all. Second, a "problem" for who? I personally don't like it when 49% of the population is told to shut up and take it by the other 51%. And yes, I'm willing to stick up for that system even when I'm seeing results I don't like. My 2 coppers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
Sound ridiculous? It shouldn't. It's very obvious that racism is alive and well. However, now the system will change, and it will be gone because of this election. Expect in 2012 (if there's a democrat primary) to be a system that mirrors the GOP.
That could be. Do you have something that makes you think that this is particularly likely, or are you simply sharing your opinion? Not trying to be snide, just trying to gauge how seriously you want me to take your comments.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
Will this hurt the Dems? Maybe. It could push McCain's campaign off the radar, and then the Dems have total control of what's going on.
February fundraising numbers:
Hillary - $35 million
Barack - $55 million
John - $12 million

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
In the end, it may really help them. On the other hand (and I think this is much more likely), Clinton will close the delegate gap enough so that the difference is less than 50.
I would be very interested in seeing your math on this, if you're willing to share it. There are 561 delegates still up for grabs (not counting unassigned delegates from Tuesday's contests).

That means she'd need to win 59% of every contest (on average) between now and the finish line (assuming that Obama has an exact 100 delegate lead on her today, which he doesn't. His lead is actually larger). What makes you think this is going to start happening all of a sudden (her largest margin was 70% in Arkansas, the state her husband was governor of. Rhode Island and Missouri tie for 2nd with 58%. New York, the state she represents, was 57%. She isn't winning by big numbers in the states she does carry)? And why are the SD going to back the underdog? Again, it's possible, but you definitely seem to think is more likely than I do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
She also could possibly shrink the popular vote lead Obama has and turn it in her favor. She's got a good case: she's won every major state but one, I think. Obama's won small states.
I'll repeat my earlier question: How many more "big states" are there? (Hint: after Pennsylvania, the next largest contest before the end of the race is N. Carolina with 91 delegates. Barack beat Hillary 55% to 27% in S. Carolina). Oh and make that 59% number I just mentioned *much* larger if you want to project her taking the lead, not just maintaining a 50 delegate trail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyarms
Oh, and I like McCain. I want someone who's gonna go after the bad guys, not like Clinton who wants to leave Iraq, and not Obama's (really) strange foreign policy ideas.
Best of luck to you and your candidate in the general election.
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