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Old 03-07-2008, 07:11 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Heavyarms
Couple of things:

1. Dems don't have any winner-take-all states that I know of.
You might be right. I thought I had heard otherwise, but it was in passing.

Originally Posted by Heavyarms
2. Remaining big states: Michigan, Florida, AND Pennsylvania. There's no way anyone's going to legitimately claim the nomination if those two states are not represented, and they will revote.
$25 million to revote in Florida and the DNC has already said they won't foot the bill. No idea what the estimated costs of revoting in Michigan will be but I suspect they will have to pay their own way as well. And Hillary has already stated that she won't "allow" a caucus.

Regardless, there are many compromises that could allow Michigan and Florida to have their seat at the table come Denver, however none of the ones that I've heard discussed will favor Hillary. If they agree to a 50/50 split (the most Hillary-favorable suggestion mentioned to date), that won't *hurt* her, but it won't help her either.

Originally Posted by Heavyarms
3. The superdelegates certainly could be waiting to see who's got the lead. It is very plausible. My theory is that Hillary Clinton is currently working in the back room to get as many as she can to narrow the gap, and will get quite a few.
And Barack Obama isn't?

My point is that he has the delegate lead and fundraising momentum in his corner. Hillary has America's love of the underdog story going for her and that's about it. And every time she sullies the party by backing McCain in favor of slinging mud at Obama, I think what little she does have going for her immediately carries less weight.

No doubt that Hillary will continue to capture some portion of the SDs, however I think the odds are very much against her that she will be able to suddenly draw the numbers she will need to make this miracle scenario happen.

Originally Posted by Heavyarms
4. My bad, it's 119 delegates. Barack must've gotten some from the Texas caucus. Still, that's what? 5% of the delegate count? Don't you think there's something wrong if she needs to win by 10% popular vote to shrink a 5% delegate lead to nothing? I suppose you could call it democratic, but to me it's a few fries short of a happy meal. And I think it's possible. We'll see what happens. Few people saw Obama doing what he did in say, December.
Yes, without the final caucus numbers to compare against everything we hear is speculation. With that said, I've heard a few sources state that Barack may have lost the election by 3 percentage point but won the caucus by double digits. Which would mean that he took more delegates from Texas than she did. But that doesn't really matter because the delegate lead that he enjoyed Tuesday morning was pretty much unchanged Wednesday. So it's not at though his lead suddenly materialized because of the Texas caucus.

Do I think it wrong (and by "wrong" I'm assuming you mean "undemocratic") that Barack Obama gained a huge lead by winning 11 contests in a row and now Hillary has to post bigger wins to catch up? No, not at all. Pretty sure that's how democracy is supposed to work. People vote and then that vote counts and stuff. The person who gets more votes get be called the "winner". I wish I could say that I was sorry Hillary lost all those primaries and caucuses in the spirit of consoling you, but I'm not so I won't.

PS: What does "do what he did in December" mean?

Originally Posted by Heavyarms
5. I'm sorry, didn't clarify the racist remark. It's something called institutional racism. It's a policy that is not necessarily designed to hurt a minority, but does. Minorities tend to be concentrated in specific districts, like blacks, hispanics, etc. I believe this is the case, because they tend to be highly concentrated in some areas, and therefore a huge turnout in a specific district can't help you, and you need to blanket it. If anything, it sure sucks up more money from the campaigns.
It would be interesting to say the least to see the democratic process abandon democracy to address this issue. Not commenting on the validity of your argument one way or the other, simply stating that I think this course of action might be akin to cutting off one's nose to spite their face.

Originally Posted by Heavyarms
6. John's gonna take his $12 million and put it away for his general election campaign. Are either of the Dems going to do that? Conservatives are starting to come around to the guy, too. He'll quietly fundraise and have a lot by the time the real fireworks start.
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are collecting money for a general election fund too

John's potentially in some hot water regarding clean elections funding, had a campaign that was completely broke 6 months ago, and (as I tried to point out above) clearly isn't raising the kind of money that the Democratic nominees are. Keep in mind that Hillary's base is largely true-blue Dems. If she gets knocked out of the race, they'll either close their wallets or contribute to Obama. I don't see anyone jumping ship from the S.S. Clinton to back McCain. Unless maybe she endorses him, then the OP can feel good knowing that he hit the nail right on the head with his concerns, because then there will be no doubt that Hillary doesn't give a rat's ass about the party.

But I appreciate your commitment to looking at the bright side of things. Thus far, you've shown an amazing willingness to do so for both Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Which makes me wonder if you haven't spread the love to Barack Obama yet because you just haven't gotten around to it, or because you have some sort of serious bias against him that prevents you from being objective. Or maybe you suspect that he's going to win the presidency in November and you enjoy playing devil's advocate for the underdogs. Nothing wrong with that either. Who knows?

Originally Posted by Heavyarms
It's going to at the least be very interesting . I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens.
Indeed. Take care.
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