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Old 04-20-2012, 09:02 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by mur'phon View Post
The problem is that those high profile incidents can spiral out of control, and suddenly shells are raining over Seoul and the SK/US army is swarming across the border. If that happens, it's nice to be able to still threaten. I'm not saying it's likely, just that NK is not crazy to want nukes.
Also, I don't see China benefiting from NKs belligerence, it's more a price they are willing to pay for the reasons I mentioned in my previous post.
I'd say that short of NK actually launching a full scale attack on SK, that's unlikely. Afterall, despite NK attacking SK ships (sort of par for the course around there when one of the Kim's gets irresponsibly fiesty) or an island (Yeonpyeong Island), there ends up being nothing but heightened tensions. If you were to remove the bigger countries of the US and PRC from the equation (say, merely SK vs NK), perhaps the NK might have scant (given their own pehchant for trouble making) justification for needing nukes for self protection. As to why the PRC tolerates NK activity at the expense of others, I'd argue there's an element of schadenfreude involved. But the problem still remains that in NK's case it's one of wants vs needs. Afterall, by that kind of rationale.....Taiwan should be a key nuke player in the region.

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